When Can North Dakota Expect Its Last Frost?

When can North Dakota expect Its last frost for the season?

After one of our warmest falls and winters on record, I'm sure many of you are anxious to get working in the yard and in your garden.  I know there's been a couple of times this year already where my grass has started to turn green.  That's right, green grass in February.

The winter weather we received last week is a reminder that we're still technically in winter and you never know if it's going to go out like a lion or a lamb.  However, if we go by trends and our current El Nino weather pattern, it should be an earlier planting season.

What is considered a safe temperature to plant in Bismarck Mandan?

According to the National Gardening Association, the "danger zone" is any temperature 36 degrees or below.  Because the temperature is typically colder high above the ground, frost can form there and fall to ground level and wreak havoc with your garden.  So, therefore you want to avoid planting your garden until the long-range forecast shows no overnight lows below 36 degrees.

That brings us back to my original question, how long until you can safely start planting?

According to the National Gardening Association, in Bismarck Mandan, it breaks down like this. By June 19th we're pretty safe from frost at that point.  We have a 90% chance there will be no 36-degree nights.  That's on a typical season.  As you know, we have been anything but typical this winter.

If you want to roll the dice a little bit, you could plant on May 28th and we are at a 50/50 chance of a 36-degree night.

If you really want to live on the edge, if you were to plant on May 13th, there would still be an 80% chance of a 36-degree night.  Again, that is on a typical year.

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I also checked for the cities of Fargo, Grand Forks, and Minot and they're all within a few days of Bismarck Mandan's frost dates.  

I would just pay attention to the long-range forecasts, and something tells me it will be safe to start planting a lot earlier than June 19th this spring.

In fact, I will give you my humble prediction after looking at the long-range forecasts on when we will see our last frost.

In my opinion, it will be safe to plant in Bismarck Mandan on May 19th as we will have no more frosts for the season.